03 Oct 2014 15:50pm
WINDHOEK, 03 OCT (NAMPA) More than a third of Namibias population will live in the Khomas and Erongo regions by 2041, the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) showed on Thursday.
NSA Statistician-General Dr John Steytler said while releasing the Population Projections Report 2011-2041 at a media conference here that the recent immigration patterns will continue into the future, therefore the number of people living in rural areas are expected to shrink gradually.
The share of the population living in urban areas is projected to increase from 43 per cent in 2011 to 67 per cent in 2041.
It is projected that over a third of Namibias population will live in the Khomas and Erongo Regions by 2041, he stated.
In the Khomas Region, where the bulk of the population lives in the capital, the population will increase from 340 000 at the census count in 2011 to 645 000 by 2030 - an increase of 305 000 people.
In the last decade, Erongo reported a population of 107 663 in 2001 that jumped to 150 809 in 2011, according to statistics issued by the NSA in 2013.
It has also been predicted that Namibias population will be 3.4 million by the year 2041. Steytler said the agencys projections showed that in a most-likely scenario the population of Namibia will increase from a census count of 2.1 million in 2011 to 3.4 million by 2041.
This represents an increase of 63 per cent compared to the year 2011. In a lower case scenario the population will increase to 3.3 million while in a higher case scenario, it could reach 3.6 million.
Projections also show that during the period 2015 to 2030, Namibias population is expected to grow from 2.3 million to 3 million, or by 30 per cent. In other words, over the next 15 years the Namibian population will increase by 700 000.
Furthermore, due to a projected fertility decline, over the next 15 years, the share of the population under the age of 15 years will decline modestly from 36.4 per cent to 33.7 per cent. In contrast, the proportion of the population at age 65 and above is expected to remain fixed at about 4.5 per cent. The total fertility rate (expected births per woman) is expected to decline from 3.9 per cent in 2011 to 2.4 by 2041. Life expectancy at birth is projected to rise by 11 years for men and 12 years for women from 2011 to 2041.
At the outset, is should be noted that nobody can predict with certainty the future population of a country, hence population projections are made on the basis of assumptions relating to the future behaviour of the levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These are the most important factors that affect population change, Steytler said.
The size of the future population is useful for the estimation of future demands for food, housing and social services.